In a remarkable turn of events, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) pulled off an electoral victory in Haryana, overcoming a decade-long anti-incumbency sentiment and securing a third consecutive term in the state assembly elections. As results came in, the BJP was leading in 49 of the 90 seats, solidifying its position to form the government with support from the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Independents.
This triumph is historic as no party has ever achieved a hat-trick in Haryana, a state that has historically oscillated between political parties since its formation in 1966. Despite predictions favoring the Congress, the BJP managed to not only retain its power but also increase its vote share from 36% in 2019 to nearly 40% in 2024.
So, how did the BJP achieve the impossible in Haryana? The answer lies in a combination of political strategy, demographic shifts, and the Congress party’s internal disarray.
The Jat Factor: A Double-Edged Sword
One of the most significant factors in this election was the role of the Jat community, traditionally a stronghold for the Congress. Under the leadership of Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the Congress was banking heavily on Jat support, assuming their backing was guaranteed. However, while there was some consolidation of Jat votes towards the Congress, a counter-polarisation occurred among non-Jat voters and urban populations, leading to a surge in support for the BJP.
The BJP’s success in Jat-majority areas was notable. Out of the 36 seats in Jat-dominated constituencies, the BJP led in 19. This is a stark contrast to the Lok Sabha elections earlier in 2024, where the Congress performed well in these same regions. The BJP’s ability to tap into non-Jat voters, coupled with the weakening of Congress’s grip on Jat-dominated areas, allowed the saffron party to gain ground where it was previously less dominant.
Urban Strongholds and Ahirwal Region: A Solid Base
The BJP’s core support base in Haryana remained intact in urban areas and the Ahirwal belt in southern Haryana. This region, home to 11 Assembly seats, has been a BJP stronghold since 2014, and the party continued to dominate in 2024, winning 10 out of these 11 seats. Rao Inderjit Singh, a key Ahirwal leader and six-term MP from Gurgaon, played a pivotal role in consolidating this region for the BJP.
Urban centers like Gurugram and Faridabad, driven by a growing middle class and an expanding corporate sector, also remained loyal to the BJP. The party’s pro-business stance and focus on infrastructure development resonated with voters in these areas, reinforcing its dominance in urban Haryana.
Congress’s Infighting and Missteps
A major contributor to the BJP’s victory was the internal discord within the Congress. The party, confident of a win, was plagued by infighting and factionalism. Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who led the Congress campaign, distributed the majority of tickets to his loyalists, sidelining other influential leaders like Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala. This move not only alienated sections of the Congress’s voter base but also weakened the party’s organizational strength in several key constituencies.
Additionally, the Congress overestimated its reliance on Jat votes and did not craft a broader, inclusive strategy to appeal to non-Jat voters and urban electorates. This miscalculation allowed the BJP to make significant inroads into previously Congress-dominated regions.
Nayab Singh Saini’s Leadership and the BJP’s United Front
The BJP’s decision to appoint Nayab Singh Saini as the chief ministerial candidate just a year before the election proved to be a masterstroke. Saini, a prominent leader from the OBC community, provided the BJP with a broader appeal across different caste groups. Unlike the Congress, which was seen as divided, the BJP presented a united front, with no significant infighting and clear leadership.
The BJP’s messaging focused on development, stability, and law and order, which resonated with voters looking for continuity. The party’s outreach efforts, combined with its strong organizational machinery, helped it retain loyal voters and attract new supporters.
Key Takeaways from the 2024 Haryana Assembly Elections
- Vote Share Increase: The BJP’s vote share rose from 36% in 2019 to 40% in 2024, indicating a significant shift in voter preferences despite anti-incumbency pressures.
- Congress Overdependence on Jats: The Congress’s overreliance on the Jat community and internal divisions cost it crucial seats, with the BJP capitalizing on the counter-polarization of non-Jat voters.
- Urban and Ahirwal Belt: The BJP’s dominance in urban areas and the Ahirwal region remained strong, securing key constituencies that helped tilt the balance in its favor.
- Unified Leadership: Nayab Singh Saini’s leadership provided the BJP with a cohesive and focused campaign, unlike the Congress, which struggled with factionalism.
- Changing Dynamics: The results signal a shift in Haryana’s political landscape, where traditional caste-based voting patterns are giving way to a more nuanced electorate that values development, governance, and stability.
In conclusion, the BJP’s historic victory in Haryana is a result of strategic consolidation, demographic shifts, and its ability to present a united front against a fractured Congress. While the Congress had hoped to capitalize on anti-incumbency and Jat support, the BJP’s broad-based appeal and disciplined campaign machinery helped it secure a third term in the state, cementing its position as a dominant force in Haryana’s political landscape.
